When will the "short composition" finally end?
This morning, the market suddenly circulated news from someone claiming to work at a core supplier of CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited), stating:
"Currently, there are four production lines, two of which have been halted. I received news tonight that one more will be stopped tomorrow, and the last one might be halted the day after tomorrow, potentially leading to a complete shutdown of the entire base. The situation of no orders and production halts began in June this year, and after resuming production at the end of February this year, we entered a semi-shutdown state in June."
As soon as the news broke, CATL's stock price plummeted by 5 percentage points!
Some people are puzzled, wasn't it just half a month ago that the market was abuzz with the "Struggle for 100 Days, Implementing the 896 Work System" that made it to the hot search, raising questions about forced overtime? So, which one is true and which one is false?
In response to the rumors, CATL promptly issued a statement, claiming that the company's operations are in good condition, with a steady increase in global market share and overall production scheduling in good order. They specifically mentioned that the production scheduling for the recent period and the third quarter shows a growth trend compared to the previous period.
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Regarding this statement, securities firms have also confirmed it.
Some securities firms have indicated that CATL's production scheduling for July is expected to increase by about 42G compared to the previous month, and considering the "Golden September and Silver October," it is anticipated that production will continue to increase in August, with the industry's fundamentals and operational rates continuously improving.
However, the current situation is that regardless of whether the "short composition" is true or false, the stock price falls first as a sign of respect. Even if it is refuted, the stock price will not return to the level before the drop.
CATL has always been able to exceed expectations in its operational performance, but the market will raise concerns, thinking that the next quarter's performance will not be good; even if the next quarter's performance is also excellent, the market will question whether the company's logic has changed under the suppression of the United States.Pay attention, the situation is even worse for the entire lithium battery industry chain than for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL). As of July 1, 2024, the lithium battery index has plummeted by 29%, significantly exceeding the decline of the overall market.
If the downturn in the lithium battery sector can still find excuses, then the decline of the "Mao Index," represented by Kweichow Moutai, seems much harder to justify.
In addition to Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, companies like WuXi AppTec, Mindray Medical, Hengrui Medicine, and Aier Eye Hospital in the pharmaceutical sector, as well as consumer goods companies like Haidilao, COFCO, Yili, and China Duty Free, have all experienced varying degrees of decline. Of course, this also includes star companies in the banking, home appliance, agriculture, and semiconductor sectors, which have all encountered declines to varying extents.
However, is our fundamental situation really that dire?
The National Bureau of Statistics has released a set of data showing that in the first five months of this year, the total profit of the national large-scale industrial enterprises was 2.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with more than 80% of industries achieving positive profit growth. Among them, the much-debated consumer sector saw a year-on-year increase of 10.9% in profits for the consumer goods manufacturing industry in the first five months of this year.
So here comes the question: according to the published data, many industries maintain growth in both revenue and profits, but judging from the stock price trends, it seems as if they are on the verge of bankruptcy. What exactly is the reason for this?
Let's talk about the ChiNext board.
The top ten constituent stocks of the ChiNext board are currently CATL, Oriental Wealth, Mindray Medical, InnoLight Technology, Inovance Technology, Sungrow Power Supply, Wens Foodstuffs Group, Aier Eye Hospital, New Easy Technology, and Eve Energy.
On June 28, Oriental Wealth encountered a "small essay," with rumors circulating that securities firms are strictly investigating securities employees and their relatives' stock trading, and even conducting a retrospective investigation for five years. Additionally, the market is also concerned about the adverse effects of the third round of fee reforms.
As a result, the stock price plummeted.In addition to this, companies like Mindray Medical and Sungrow Power also have a lot of bearish news. As for Aier Eye Hospital and EVE Energy, there's no need to mention them, because these two companies have long been lying in the ICU.
So, do people think it's possible that someone is deliberately spreading rumors, by attacking the "Mao Index" to short the CSI 300, and then by attacking the weight of the ChiNext to short the ChiNext?
On June 28th, the first half-year report of the photovoltaic industry was disclosed, and Jinpiao Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 325 million to 400 million yuan. That is to say, looking at the second quarter alone, the median net profit is about 340 million yuan, a sequential increase of 16 times, and a year-on-year increase of 13%. However, before this performance was announced, the stock price of Jinpiao Technology had fallen by 40% for the year.
So, does the stock price really reflect the fundamentals? Behind the decline in stock prices, is there someone causing trouble?